Analysis of ENSO influence in the Yaqui Valley (Sonora, México) with dynamic and multiple regression models
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Abstract
Modeling and forecasting of rainfall is of great importance because it helps to estimate water availability and planning diverse human activities like agriculture. To estimate annual rainfall and monthly temperaturas it is common to use probability distributions like the Normal, Lognormal, Gamma and Gumbel distributions. Although these probability distributions have provided the useful forecast predictions needed in planning, these models do not take in consideration the possible influence of the Central Pacific Ocean-atmosphere anomalous oscillations in temperatures that have been called the “El Niño” or ENSO (El Niño Southern
Oscillation) event. In this paper, this influence is analyzed with correlation analysis, multiple regression methods and transfer functions or dynamic regression, it was found that at a national level there is an small increment in rainfall after a strong “El Niño” event, in contrast, in the Valle del Yaqui the annual rainfall decreases after the occurrence of a strong “El Niño”. The annual mean of minimum monthly temperaturas increases lightly in “El Niño” years and decreases in “La Niña” years.
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How to Cite
Cruz Medina, I. R. (1). Analysis of ENSO influence in the Yaqui Valley (Sonora, México) with dynamic and multiple regression models. Revista Latinoamericana De Recursos Naturales, 2(2), 65-80. Retrieved from https://revista.itson.edu.mx/index.php/rlrn/article/view/81
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Original Article
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
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Salinas, Z.C.A. y Lluch, D.B., 2003. Relationship between ENSO and winter-wheat yields in Sonora, México. Geofísica Internacional, 42: 341-350.
SAS Institute Inc., 1999. SAS/STAT User’s Guide, Version 8, Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inc. 652 pp.
Smith, C.A. y Sardeshmukh, P., 2000. The effect of ENSO on the intraseasonal variance of surface temperature in winter. International Journal of Climatology, 20: 1543-1557.
Titterington, D.M., Smith, A.F.M. y Makov, U.E., 1985. Statistical Analysis of Finite Mixture Distributions. John Wiley. 243 pp.
Urbán, J.R., Gómez, A. y Ludwing, S., 2003. Abundance and mortality of gray whales at Laguna San Ignacio, México, during the 1997-1998 El Niño and the 1998 La Niña. Geofísica Internacional, 42: 439-446.
Wolter, K. y Timlin, M.S., 1993. Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index. Proceedings of the 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop (1993). NOAA/N MC/CAC, NSSL, Oklahoma Climatology Survey, CIMMS, School of Meteorology (University of Oklahoma), Norman, Estados Unidos. pp 52-57.
Wolter, K. y Timlin, M.S., 1998. Measuring the strength of ENSO - How Does 1997/98 Rank?. Weather, 53: 315-324.
Box, G.E.P. y Jenkins, G.M..1976. Time series analysis forecasting and control. Holden-Day. Oakland California. 575 pp.
Box, G.E.P. y Watson, G.S., 1962. Robustness to non-normality of regression tests. Biometrika, 49: 93-106.
Bureau of Meteorology, 2004. SOI Archives 1876 to present. Commonwealth of Australia. (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml).
Cane, M.A. y Zebiak, S.E., 1985. A theory for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Science, 228: 1085–1087.
Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, 2004. ENSO Index According to JMA SSTA (1868-present). Florida State University, Estados Unidos. (http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/ ~legler/jma_index1.shtml)
Climate Research Unit. 2004. Index of ftp Data. University of East Anglia. Norwich U. K. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ftpdata/soi.dat.
NOAA, 2004a. Multivariate ENSO Index. CLIMATIC DIAGNOSTICS CENTER. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Boulder Colorado. Estados Unidos. (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/)
NOAA, 2004b. Bivariate ENSO Time Series. CLIMAT DIAGNOSTICS CENTER. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Boulder Colorado. Estados Unidos.(http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/cathy. smith/best/)
Conover, W.J., 1999. Practical nonparametric statistics. John Wiley & Sons. 3rd. 584 pp.
de la Peña, I., 1997. Disponibilidad hidráulica superficial y subterránea de la cuenca hidrológica del Río Yaqui, Sonora, en el marco de una explotación agrícola. Comisión Nacional del Agua, México.
Douglas, W.M., Maddox, R.A. y Howard, K., 1993. The Mexican monsoon. American Meteorological Society, 6: 1665-1677.
EXPERTFIT, 2002. User’s Guide. Averill M. Law & Associates. Tucson AZ. 142 pp.
Gershunov, A. y Barnett, T.P., 1998. ENSO influence on intraseasonal extreme rainfall and temperature frequencies in the contiguous United States: observations and model results. Journal of Climate,11: 1575-1586.
Glantz, M.K., 1996. Currents of change: El Niño’s impact on climate and society. Cambridge University Press. 194 pp.
Goovaerts, P., 1997. Geostatistics for natural resources evaluation. Oxford University Press. 483 pp.
Hollander, M. y Wolfe, A.W., 1999. Nonparametric statistical methods. John Wiley & Sons 2nd Edition. 787 pp.
Clark Labs, 2004. IDRISI KILIMANJARO Guide to GIS and Image Processing. Clark Labs, Clark University, Worcester MA. Estados Unidos. 320 pp.
IMTA, 2000. Extractor rápido de información climatológica ERIC-II. Comisión Nacional del Agua-Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, México DF.
INIFAP, 2001. Guía técnica para los cultivos del área de influencia del campo experimental del Valle del Yaqui. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias. SAGARPA. 282 pp.
Khuri, A.I. y Good, I.J., 1977. The distribution of quadratic forms in non-normal variables and an application to the variance ratio. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 39: 217-221.
Labadie, J.W., 2004. Optimal operation of multireservoir systems: State of the art review. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 130: 93-111.
Lavín, M.F., Palacios, E. y Cabrera, C., 2003. Sea Surface temperature anomalies in the Gulf of California. Geofísica Internacional, 42: 363-375.
Ljung, G.M. y Box, G.E.P., 1978. On a measure of lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika, 65: 297-303.
Magaña, V.O., Vázquez, J.L., Pérez, J.L. y Pérez, J.B., 2003. Impact of El Niño on precipitation in México. Geofísica Internacional, 42: 313-330.
MINITAB Inc., 2003. Meet MINITABAS/STAT Release 14, State College, PA. Minitab Inc. 106 pp.
Muhlia-Melo, A., Klimley, P., González-Armas, R., Jorgensen, S., Trasviñacastro, A., Rodríguez-Romero J. y Amador Buenrostro, A. 2003. Pelagic fish assemblages at the Espíritu Santo seamount in the Gulf of California during El Niño 1997-1998 and non-El Niño conditions. Geofísica Internacional, 42: 473-481.
Palacios, T.G.F., 1999. Análisis del funcionamiento del sistema de presas del Río Yaqui Sonora, mediante un modelo de simulación con movimiento de embalse. Tesis de Maestría, Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora, México. 121 pp.
Palomares-García, R., Martínez-López, A., De Silva-Dávila, R., Funesrodríguez, R., Carballido-Carranza, M.A., Avendaño-Ibarra, R., Hinojosamedina, A. y López-Ibarra, G. A. 2003.
Biological effects of El Niño 1997-98 on a shallow subtropical ecosystem: Bahía Magdalena, México. Geofísica Internacional, 42: 447-453.
Pankratz, A. 1991. Forecasting with dynamic regression models. John Wiley & Sons. 386 pp.
Rasmusson, E.M. y Carpenter, T. H., 1983. The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperaturas and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Monthly Weather Review, 111: 517-528.
Ropelewski, C.F. y Jones, P.D., 1987. An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin southern oscillation index. Monthly Weather Review, 115: 2161-2165.
Salinas, Z.C.A. y Lluch, D.B., 2003. Relationship between ENSO and winter-wheat yields in Sonora, México. Geofísica Internacional, 42: 341-350.
SAS Institute Inc., 1999. SAS/STAT User’s Guide, Version 8, Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inc. 652 pp.
Smith, C.A. y Sardeshmukh, P., 2000. The effect of ENSO on the intraseasonal variance of surface temperature in winter. International Journal of Climatology, 20: 1543-1557.
Titterington, D.M., Smith, A.F.M. y Makov, U.E., 1985. Statistical Analysis of Finite Mixture Distributions. John Wiley. 243 pp.
Urbán, J.R., Gómez, A. y Ludwing, S., 2003. Abundance and mortality of gray whales at Laguna San Ignacio, México, during the 1997-1998 El Niño and the 1998 La Niña. Geofísica Internacional, 42: 439-446.
Wolter, K. y Timlin, M.S., 1993. Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index. Proceedings of the 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop (1993). NOAA/N MC/CAC, NSSL, Oklahoma Climatology Survey, CIMMS, School of Meteorology (University of Oklahoma), Norman, Estados Unidos. pp 52-57.
Wolter, K. y Timlin, M.S., 1998. Measuring the strength of ENSO - How Does 1997/98 Rank?. Weather, 53: 315-324.